How the Odds can Shift Based on Recent Events
Live sport is known for its uncertainty. This is one of the main reasons why it is so exciting. The odds of various outcomes can shift for an assortment of reasons.
Team selection, recent form and external news events can all have a major bearing on how likely a result will be as predicted.
Bookmakers consider all of the factors when offering odds on the different matches and tournaments. When you apply this to team sports, which players are available at any given time is essential for assessing the odds.
In the UK Premier League, Liverpool FC are among the favorites for the title. However, the fact that three of their top players, Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Naby Keita will be unavailable at the start of next year due to the African Cup of Nations will likely impact their odds.
Salah is expected to represent Egypt in the tournament, with Mane playing for his home nation of Senegal. Keita competes for his home nation of Guinea.
The cup will take around a month to complete during one of the essential parts of the Premier League season. The odds for Liverpool’s games over this period will therefore be affected.
The altering of the odds based on the availability of players is also seen in the NFL. The recent news of Aaron Rodgers being unavailable for the Green Bay Packers had a significant effect on the NFL betting odds.
Rodgers is the number one quarterback for his team and the loss of his services has had a significant impact on their chances of doing well.
A major change in the starting lineup such as this can make a team go from favorite to underdog for the ensuing match.
Injuries, suspensions and tactical team changes are the biggest causes for fluctuation in how people place their wagers. For example, let’s say that a team loses their star player just a day before match day. This will have a huge influence on the betting line and the resulting odds.
It could also be that a star player misses a game due to suspension or because the coaching team thinks that they need a rest before a tougher game in the coming week. This would be known as a tactical change, as the player is technically available, but being left out as the coach feels it more important to give them a break.
Other factors can also cause a change in the odds.
For instance, which team has had the better or worse recent form is often a decisive factor in the odds. A team might be deemed to be stronger by the experts, but if they are on the back of a string of recent defeats, the bookmakers will shift the odds accordingly.
Media stories also play a part in how people make bets on sports. The media sometimes ‘hypes up’ locker room news to get more people tuning in. The ramifications for the eventual betting behavior are then amplified, having a direct effect on the odds.
Sports fans looking to make a wager on a match covered by the media in this way should try and concentrate on the game itself and not the background dramas.
Punters would be advised to focus on the team selection and form book. They could also ask themselves whether the story is likely to have any bearing on the possible result.
Generally speaking, betting on anything is deemed surer when you can bet as closely as possible to the time of the event. This means you can act with all the available information and have the most up to date odds on an outcome. However, this will also affect the possible eventual winnings.
Consider if someone is looking at making a bet on the eventual winner of the NFL.
The odds will be more favorable for a team when there is a greater amount of time until the culmination of the season. This is because it is a harder bet to make with all the variables multiplying over the duration of the year.
For this reason, it is usually wiser to wait until a more detailed assessment of the probabilities can be made later in the season.
Watching how others are betting is also good advice for the sports fan. When new information comes to light about an upcoming game, people will shift their bets accordingly. Being aware of this is invaluable and demonstrates why the odds have changed.
So, if an announcement about the starting team is made three hours before kick-off and a star player is left out, the money being bet on the opponents could change dramatically.
The sudden influx of new funds backing a particular team will mean that the odds will shift to accommodate the change.
It is in the nature of bookmaking that the odds can change right up until kick-off. The smart punter will be aware of this and be able to use all the latest information for a bet.